Market News

USD/CAD has extended its decline to test the weekly low around 1.3649 after failing to break above a key cluster of the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3680–1.3686. Sellers remain in control while price stays below these moving averages, with further downside targeting 1.3630 and potentially the 1.3600 support zone.

USD/CHF is moving lower as a softer US dollar and risk-off sentiment weigh on the pair, with price rejecting key hourly moving averages near 0.7740. The pair is now testing important support levels around 0.7692, with further downside targets near 0.7669 and 0.7629 if support breaks.

Canada’s Q4 GDP contracted 0.6% annualized versus expectations of flat growth, sharply down from the prior +2.6%, with quarterly GDP -0.2% q/q and real GDP up 1.7% for 2025. The weakness is partly attributed to inventory drawdowns, but still signals softer Canadian economic momentum that could increase expectations for Bank of Canada easing and weigh on the Canadian dollar.

The article outlines a technically-driven, range-bound USD environment ahead of the US January PPI release, with key intraday support and resistance levels highlighted for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD. It emphasizes that compressed ranges and clustered moving averages suggest potential for a larger directional move once a breakout occurs, but no clear directional bias is established yet.

Germany's February preliminary CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, slightly below the 2.0% expected and down from 2.1% previously, signaling a modest easing in inflation pressures. The softer print increases expectations that the ECB could move toward rate cuts sooner, weighing on the euro and yields.

Regional CPI data from major German states show a modest softening in headline inflation, suggesting the national reading may come in around 1.9% year-on-year. However, with core inflation still seen as sticky around 2.5%, the ECB is likely to remain cautious and keep rates on hold for now.

Swiss Q4 GDP grew 0.1% q/q, slightly below expectations but marking a rebound from the prior quarter, with domestic demand and a recovery in the chemical and pharmaceutical sector supporting growth. While overall 2025 GDP improved to 1.4%, the SNB still faces the challenge of deflationary pressures and a strong franc, with EUR/CHF trading just above 0.91 after breaking 2025 lows.

French February preliminary CPI and HICP both surprised to the upside, with the largest monthly price gain since February 2024, driven partly by base effects from last year’s electricity prices. The data point to slightly firmer underlying inflation pressures in France, which could temper expectations for rapid ECB easing at the margin.

German import prices rose 1.1% m/m in January, the strongest monthly gain in a year, driven mainly by higher energy and intermediate goods prices. However, on a yearly basis import prices remain 2.3% lower due to sharply lower energy costs, while non-energy imports are slightly higher year-on-year.

China's Politburo characterizes the development of the latest five-year plan as unusually challenging while reaffirming a strategy of more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support growth and domestic demand. The authorities also signal continued attention to yuan and dollar market dynamics, implying readiness to adjust policy tools in response to global currency moves and tariffs-related pressures.

UK data show consumer confidence falling to a three-month low and unemployment rising to the highest level since early 2021, while car production and exports decline sharply, highlighting renewed economic strain. The mixed picture of weaker household sentiment and industrial output against a backdrop of still-elevated savings clouds the near-term growth outlook and may weigh on the pound.

Asia-Pacific FX trade saw the yuan weaken after the PBoC cut the FX risk reserve ratio to 0% and set a much weaker-than-expected USD/CNY fixing, while Tokyo inflation eased below the BOJ’s 2% target on the core measure but stayed firm on a core-core basis. Risk sentiment was mixed, with tech stocks reacting to corporate news (Block and Netflix) and geopolitical tensions rising after Pakistani airstrikes on Kabul.

Block announced plans to cut over 4,000 jobs—nearly half its workforce—explicitly attributing the move to an AI-enabled operating model, which drove its shares up about 25% after-hours alongside strong earnings and upgraded guidance. The market’s positive reaction signals a potential template for broader AI-driven cost-cutting across tech and white-collar sectors, with implications for productivity, employment, and future monetary policy expectations.

Japan's January data showed a strong upside surprise in retail sales while industrial production rebounded but fell short of expectations. Forward guidance from manufacturers points to modest output declines in February and March, suggesting only a tentative recovery in Japan's real economy.

US markets saw a tech-led pullback as Nvidia shares dropped despite strong earnings, while broader indices and small caps held up better, and FX moves were mixed with JPY stronger and GBP notably weaker. Safe-haven demand was modestly supportive for gold, oil was little changed despite positive Iran negotiation headlines, and Bitcoin gave back part of its prior day’s gains.

The article highlights upcoming Tokyo CPI inflation data, noting recent cooling trends that have reduced urgency for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, but also points to hawkish BOJ commentary about potential inflation overshoot. Markets are focused on whether today's data will support renewed tightening expectations, which would influence the yen and related FX crosses.

GBP/USD fell sharply after losing support at its 100- and 200-hour moving averages but found strong buying interest at the rising 200-day moving average around 1.3445. The 200-day MA now acts as a key line in the sand, with price action around 1.3488–1.3512 likely to determine whether short-term momentum turns back higher or a renewed downside test emerges.

Comments from Canadian minister Dominic LeBlanc indicate that government-to-government discussions on USMCA are progressing in a way that is "not discouraging," and he remains "not pessimistic" about eventual bilateral sectoral arrangements with the US. The article notes that the Canadian dollar is modestly stronger, supported by oil price gains and strong inflows into Canadian government bonds, while USD/CAD remains range-bound amid mixed macro signals in both Canada and the US.

The U.S. federal government approved a record $26.5 billion loan to Georgia Power and Alabama Power, subsidiaries of Southern Company, to expand capacity—primarily via new natural gas plants and grid upgrades—to meet rising electricity demand from data centers. While intended to lower customer costs, the move draws criticism for backing fossil-fuel infrastructure instead of cheaper renewables, raising questions about long-term energy and climate policy direction.

The Nikkei 225 hit a new record high of 59,000, driven by the Bank of Japan’s continued accommodative monetary policy and a strong global tech-led rally. This has increased the appeal of Japanese equities, with broad-based Japan-focused ETFs like EWJ, BBJP, FLJP, and OPPJ highlighted as ways to gain exposure.

AUD/USD is trading lower as risk-off sentiment and a failure to break multi-month resistance levels invite sellers back into the market. Price is testing a key cluster of moving averages, with a downside break likely to increase bearish momentum toward recent lows.

The article reports growing unease in Beijing as preparations for an April Trump–Xi summit stall, with limited concrete deliverables expected and concerns over potential policy missteps, particularly on Taiwan. Markets may see any eventual announcements on trade (e.g., aircraft, agriculture, chips) as more cosmetic than substantive, while attention also turns to recent US dollar weakness against the renminbi.

Eurozone February consumer confidence was confirmed at -12.2, slightly improved from -12.4, but broader economic, industrial, and services confidence all weakened and remain below long-term averages. The data suggest a softening growth outlook with weaker employment expectations, but are not seen as changing the ECB’s current wait-and-see policy stance or rate expectations for this year.

USDCAD rebounded after a failed downside extension in Asia, reclaiming the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and shifting short-term control back to buyers. Price is consolidating in a tight multi-day range, with the 1.37045 50% midpoint acting as a key resistance level that could trigger a more directional breakout if breached.

Canada’s Q4 current account deficit narrowed sharply to $0.71B versus $7.71B expected, mainly due to a large improvement in the goods trade balance and strong foreign demand for Canadian federal government bonds, even as 2025 as a whole saw the current account deficit double from 2024. The data point to resilient external financing and strong foreign direct investment into Canada, but also softer domestic earnings growth and payrolls, which together modestly reduce pressure for tighter monetary policy and are mildly negative for the Canadian dollar at the margin.

The article provides a technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, highlighting that all three pairs are trading near key moving averages and swing levels within relatively tight ranges. It emphasizes that upcoming range breaks around these inflection points could determine short‑term directional control for the U.S. dollar against the euro, pound, and yen into the North American session and weekly close.

The article notes a quiet European FX session with markets focused on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, which have generated positive headlines and driven oil prices lower. Broader risk sentiment is mildly supported, while key data is limited to US jobless claims later, which are unlikely to shift the market unless they significantly surprise.

ANZ maintains a bullish outlook on gold, expecting a renewed push above $5,200 supported by continued accommodative monetary policy and less crowded investor positioning after recent profit-taking. Additional support comes from heightened geopolitical tensions and broader economic and financial risks, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against market uncertainty.

Markets are focused on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, seen as a last-ditch effort to avoid military conflict, with an agreement looking unlikely and raising geopolitical risk into the weekend. US Jobless Claims and several ECB/BoE speakers are on the docket but are not expected to materially shift market expectations unless data significantly deviates from forecasts.

The article describes a hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan, with Governor Ueda and board member Takata signaling further rate hikes as inflation risks and expectations rise, which boosted the yen. It also notes steady AUD and NZD, a firmer KRW, TWD and CNY, rangebound oil and gold, and mixed equity performance with Japan’s Nikkei hitting record highs while Chinese markets lagged.

China’s upcoming 2026 Two Sessions are expected to focus on setting a slightly lower growth target, maintaining a moderate fiscal deficit near 4% of GDP, and emphasizing industrial upgrading, tech self-reliance, and economic security over large-scale stimulus. Policy support will likely be targeted toward domestic demand and strategic sectors while avoiding a major credit-fueled rebound, signaling steady but not aggressive growth support.

Australian Q4 private capex slightly beat expectations, with strong growth in buildings and structures driven by renewable energy projects and non-mining investment reaching a record high. Upgraded capex plans for 2025/26 and a solid 2026/27 pipeline signal resilient domestic demand and a constructive medium-term outlook for the Australian economy.

Australian Q4 2025 private capital expenditure rose 0.4% q/q, beating expectations of 0% but slowing sharply from the prior quarter’s 6.4% gain. While plant and machinery investment fell, building investment and higher 2025-26 capex intentions suggest underlying business investment remains relatively resilient.

New Zealand business confidence eased slightly in February but remains strong, while cost, wage, and inflation expectations have all moved higher. Persistent inflation pressures despite solid activity suggest the RBNZ may need to keep policy tighter for longer, supporting NZD relative to peers.

IMF Managing Director Georgieva said US goods inflation has been partly driven by tariffs, while indicating that a federal funds rate around 3.25%–3.5% would be consistent with full employment and gradual Fed easing. She also warned that the US fiscal deficit and current account deficit are too large, calling for determined fiscal action and noting the IMF shares concerns about external imbalances.

The IMF projects solid U.S. growth around 2.4% in 2026 with inflation gradually returning to the Fed’s 2% target by early 2027, while unemployment stays near 4%. However, it warns that large and persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt toward 140% of GDP increase vulnerability to disorderly shifts in capital flows and underscore the importance of preserving Fed policy credibility.

USD/CHF is trading in a choppy range around its rising 200-hour moving average, which has acted as key support on multiple recent tests. A decisive break below this level would tilt the short-term bias bearish, while another successful defense could keep the pair range-bound with upside potential toward key resistance levels.

The U.S. dollar broadly weakened against major currencies (except JPY) despite slightly higher Treasury yields, while risk assets and precious metals rallied ahead of Nvidia’s stronger‑than‑expected earnings. AUD and NZD outperformed on firmer Australian inflation and RBA expectations, gold and silver gained on the softer USD, Bitcoin surged, and U.S. equities extended gains led by the Nasdaq.

The article outlines key Asia-Pacific economic events for February 26, 2026, including New Zealand's ANZ Business Outlook survey, the Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly Bulletin, and Japan's Cabinet Office Leading Index. These indicators provide forward-looking insights into business sentiment and economic momentum in New Zealand, Australia, and Japan, with potential implications mainly for NZD, AUD, and JPY markets.

Israeli media report that U.S. airstrikes on Iran are increasingly likely as new Iranian proposals reportedly fail to meet American conditions, with Israeli officials seeing a high chance of an attack. Oil prices already appear to include a $5–7 geopolitical risk premium, and the article warns that if strikes fall short of regime change, crude may initially spike but then quickly sell off as traders take profits.

USTR Jamieson Greer signaled that the US will move ahead with 15% tariffs "where appropriate," while aiming to preserve continuity for partners that have negotiated deals, and clarified that details will come via a proclamation in the coming days. He also downplayed the risk of the US leaving USMCA, suggesting the agreement is broadly safe but that the administration is struggling to reconstitute tariffs under Section 122, creating near‑term trade policy uncertainty.

OFG Bancorp’s 2025 10-K shows strong financial performance with higher revenues, net income, and EPS, alongside a strategic push toward a fully digital, data-driven, customer-centric model. The company also announced a $200 million stock repurchase program and higher dividends, signaling confidence in its capital position despite ongoing economic and regulatory risks in Puerto Rico.

The U.S. Treasury’s $70 billion 5-year note auction tailed slightly and showed softer-than-average demand, with dealers taking a larger share and bid-to-cover below the six-month average. Despite the lukewarm auction, broader markets show modestly higher U.S. yields, a weaker dollar against most majors, and strong gains in Bitcoin, gold, silver, and U.S. equities ahead of Nvidia earnings.

AUD/USD has shifted to a more constructive technical posture as buyers pushed price back above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and through a key resistance zone, signaling short-term bullish control. Further upside depends on holding above 0.7094–0.7099 and building momentum toward 0.7116 and the 2026 high at 0.71464, while a drop back below the key moving averages would weaken the bullish structure.

Eurozone January final CPI was confirmed at 1.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.2%, both unchanged from preliminary estimates and down from prior readings. The data reinforces the view that inflation is close to but slightly below the ECB’s 2% target, reducing pressure for near-term policy changes and keeping rate-cut expectations very low.

The article outlines that USD/CAD is trading in a tight range with a mildly bullish bias, hinging on a key resistance at 1.37045 and support around the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. It also notes that recent U.S. tariff hikes and related risk-off sentiment are supporting the USD side of the pair, but a decisive breakout is still pending.

Statistics Canada’s 2026 capital spending intentions show a slowdown in overall capex growth, with weakness in manufacturing and machinery & equipment offset by stronger investment in natural resources, utilities, and transportation. The report highlights tariff-driven headwinds for Canadian manufacturing but suggests that improved North American trade certainty later this year could unlock pent-up investment and support the Canadian dollar.

The article describes a mixed but largely range-bound USD environment, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD stuck between key hourly moving averages while USD/JPY shows upside momentum after breaking resistance. Traders are focusing on well-defined technical levels, using moving averages and swing zones to guide short-term positioning until a clearer trend emerges.

The article highlights continued weakness in the Japanese yen amid political opposition to further BoJ rate hikes, contrasted with calls from ex-BoJ Governor Kuroda for tighter policy, while the Australian dollar softens after RBA Governor Bullock signals patience on policy changes. Eurozone and German data were in line with expectations and had little market impact, with attention turning to upcoming US data such as NFP for potential shifts in sentiment.

Germany’s final Q4 GDP confirmed 0.3% q/q and 0.4% y/y growth, signaling a gradual economic recovery supported by fiscal stimulus and ECB rate cuts. Economists expect German growth to improve further in 2026, suggesting a slowly strengthening Eurozone backdrop if momentum persists.